Back

Suitable seasons: Global monthly habitat suitability for the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in 1975-2024

Siddiqui, T.; Malysheva, N.; Hartner, A.-M.; Butyrin, S.; Parreira, D.; Genger, J.-W.; Irrgang, C.

2026-04-18 ecology
10.64898/2026.04.17.719149 bioRxiv
Show abstract

The mosquito species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are the primary vectors of the arboviruses dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Expansion of these vectors into previously non-endemic regions due to climate and environmental changes has accelerated global burden from arboviral diseases. To combat this, predictive models accurately mapping Aedes habitats are essential for epidemiological modelling, effective vector control, and disease prevention. We introduce the Climademic Suitability Model, a machine learning model that delivers monthly global predictions of Aedes habitat suitability at 0.25{degrees} spatial resolution between 1975--2024. The model leverages integrated climate, land use, human population, and mosquito surveillance data to provide an explainable view of the factors governing habitat dynamics. SHAP-based explainability analysis identified temperature and dew point temperature as dominant features driving habitat suitability. Long-term analysis reveals a complex global redistribution of expanding and contracting vector habitats. Suitable areas for both species now encompass regions home to over 5 billion people, coinciding with the worlds most pronounced population growth and surpassing projections previously placing this threshold at 2050. The Climademic Suitability Model serves as a framework for near-real-time vector surveillance, climate scenario projection, and integration into transmission models to advance epidemic preparedness in an era of accelerating environmental change.

Matching journals

The top 5 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
PLOS Computational Biology
1633 papers in training set
Top 2%
17.0%
2
Nature Communications
4913 papers in training set
Top 12%
13.9%
3
PLOS ONE
4510 papers in training set
Top 19%
9.8%
4
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
2130 papers in training set
Top 10%
6.6%
5
Environmental Research Letters
15 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
6.2%
50% of probability mass above
6
Scientific Reports
3102 papers in training set
Top 25%
4.7%
7
Epidemics
104 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
3.5%
8
eLife
5422 papers in training set
Top 28%
3.5%
9
Science Advances
1098 papers in training set
Top 9%
3.0%
10
Communications Biology
886 papers in training set
Top 6%
2.0%
11
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
189 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.6%
12
Science
429 papers in training set
Top 15%
1.6%
13
Communications Earth & Environment
14 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
1.6%
14
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
60 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.6%
15
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
378 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.3%
16
Patterns
70 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.2%
17
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
51 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.2%
18
iScience
1063 papers in training set
Top 22%
1.2%
19
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
341 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.1%
20
Nature Ecology & Evolution
113 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.9%
21
Cell Systems
167 papers in training set
Top 11%
0.9%
22
Physical Review X
23 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
0.9%
23
Scientific Data
174 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
24
Bioinformatics Advances
184 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.8%
25
Viruses
318 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.8%
26
PLOS Biology
408 papers in training set
Top 24%
0.6%
27
Ecography
50 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.6%