Generational gains in memory capacity and stability may account for declining dementia incidence rates in Europe and the United States
Fjell, A. M. M.; Grodem, E. O. S. O. S.; Lunansky, G.; Vidal-Pineiro, D.; Rogeberg, O. J.; Walhovd, K. B.
Show abstract
Dementia incidence has been declining in Western societies for decades, but whether this reflects higher cognitive capacity entering old age, slower cognitive decline, or both remains unresolved. Analysing [~]783,000 episodic memory assessments from [~]219,000 individuals across five longitudinal cohorts, we find that later-born cohorts benefit from a double dividend: higher memory levels entering old age and slower rates of decline. The projected 20-year cohort advantage at age 80 is of sufficient magnitude to plausibly account for the observed 13% per-decade decline in dementia incidence reported in meta-analyses. Generational gains are disproportionately concentrated among the fastest-declining individuals, and are reflected in lower hippocampal atrophy rates in an independent sample. A formal bounding analysis shows that the double dividend is robust across a range of plausible period assumptions, consistent with environmental conditions operating across the lifespan having reshaped the architecture of human cognitive aging.
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