Health Impact Assessment of BRCA1/2 Cascade Screening for the Personalized Prevention of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancers in Italy

Introduction Pathogenic germline variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes confer a markedly increased risk of breast and ovarian cancer, for which effective preventive strategies are available. Although national and international guidelines recommend BRCA testing and cascade screening of relatives, implementation in Italy remains highly heterogeneous across regions. This study estimates the potential population health and cost impact of achieving full nationwide implementation of BRCA1/2 cascade screening in Italy and identifies key organisational barriers and priority actions for implementation. Methods We conducted a Health Impact Assessment integrating literature review, simulation modelling, and stakeholder consultation. A decision tree and Markov model compared the current heterogeneous implementation of BRCA screening in Italy with an ideal scenario reflecting full adherence to national guidelines, optimal cascade screening, and uptake of preventive strategies. Outcomes included breast and ovarian cancer incidence and mortality, healthcare costs over a lifetime horizon (80 years). Key barriers affecting organisational feasibility, acceptability, and patient well-being were assessed, and a set of priority action recommendations was developed. Results In the ideal scenario, 25,626 eligible cancer patients would undergo BRCA testing annually, identifying 4,254 mutation carriers and enabling cascade testing of 27,650 relatives, of whom 8,682 would be BRCA-positive. Under the current implementation, only 8,807 patients and 2,168 relatives are tested, identifying 948 carriers. Over 30 years, full implementation would prevent 821 cancer cases (- 27.9%) and 1,282 deaths (- 49.7%) compared with the current scenario. While initial expenditures increase due to expanded testing and preventive interventions, cumulative costs decrease over time, resulting in net savings of 5.8 million euros at 30 years and a saving per event avoided (- 2,779 euros). Major implementation barriers include fragmented governance, limited access to genetic counselling, heterogeneous laboratory practices, insufficient professional training, and weak referral pathways. Conclusion Full implementation of BRCA1/2 cascade screening in Italy would yield substantial population health benefits and long-term cost savings. Coordinated national governance, standardised pathways, investment in counselling and workforce capacity, and robust monitoring systems are essential to ensure equitable access and sustainable delivery of personalised cancer prevention. This study demonstrates the value of the HIA methodology for evaluating and guiding genomic prevention policies.