Linguistic and Acoustic Biomarkers from Simulated Speech Reveal Early Cognitive Impairment Patterns in Alzheimers Disease

BackgroundAlzheimers disease (AD) causes progressive decline in language and cognition. Automated speech analysis has emerged as a promising screening tool, yet clinical data scarcity limits progress. To address this, we generated a large-scale simulated speech dataset to model linguistic and acoustic deterioration across cognitive stages, Control, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), and AD. MethodsUsing Monte Carlo simulations, we emulated the Pitt DementiaBank "Cookie Theft" narratives. Acoustic features (speech rate, pause duration, jitter, shimmer) and linguistic features (type-token ratio, unique-word count, filler usage) were synthetically sampled from real-world DementiaBank distributions. We trained an XGBoost classifier to distinguish diagnostic groups, and applied SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) to assess feature importance. ResultsThe model achieved high discriminative performance (AUC {approx} 0.94; accuracy {approx} 85%). Compared to controls, simulated MCI and AD groups showed progressive declines in fluency and lexical diversity, and increases in disfluencies and voice instability. SHAP analysis revealed that key predictors included reduced type-token ratio, higher pause and filler rates, and elevated jitter/shimmer. Classification was most accurate for Control vs. AD; MCI misclassifications highlighted intermediate profiles. InterpretationOur framework, FMN (Forget Me Not), captures clinically relevant speech changes using simulated data, offering an explainable and scalable approach for cognitive screening. While not a substitute for real datasets, FMN validates a pipeline that mirrors known AD markers and can guide future real-world deployments. External validation remains a key next step for translational impact.