Longitudinal modelling of clonal hematopoiesis reveals altered early clonal dynamics in people with HIV

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an age-associated condition linked to chronic inflammation and an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases and hematological malignancies. People with HIV (PWH) exhibit a higher prevalence of CHIP than the general population, but the mechanisms underlying this association remain unclear. In particular, it is unknown whether the excess burden of CHIP reflects earlier emergence of mutant clones, altered clonal expansion dynamics, or differences in selective pressures acting on hematopoietic stem cells. We reconstructed longitudinal trajectories of CHIP variant allele frequency (VAF) in 52 PWH using serial peripheral blood samples spanning up to 25 years from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We used spline-based modelling to estimate clone size and growth dynamics, and dynamic time warping to identify common trajectory patterns. Associations between clonal dynamics and longitudinal immune parameters were assessed using linear mixed-effects models. Trajectories in PWH were compared with publicly available longitudinal CHIP data from the SardiNIA population cohort. We identified heterogeneous clonal dynamics consistent with known gene-specific fitness patterns. Larger clone size was associated with lower CD4 T-cell count and lower CD4/CD8 ratio. Compared with the general population cohort, PWH showed higher VAF across the observed age range and steeper early trajectory increases, while long-term expansion rates were broadly similar. Greater variability in clonal dynamics among PWH suggests a stronger contribution of host environmental factors to clonal fitness. These findings support a model in which HIV-associated immune dysregulation alters the hematopoietic fitness landscape, contributing to earlier detectable clonal expansion and increased burden of CHIP in PWH.