Nationwide Prediction of Missed and Cancelled Appointments Using Real-World EHR Data

ObjectivesTo develop and evaluate predictive models for unused outpatient appointments (missed or cancelled) using a large national electronic health record (EHR) repository in the United States. DesignRetrospective observational study using machine learning and statistical modeling. SettingA U.S. national electronic health record repository (Cerner Real World Database) covering healthcare encounters from 2010 to 2025. ParticipantsAdult patients aged [≥]18 years with routine outpatient encounters recorded in the database. One outpatient appointment with a known status was randomly selected per patient, resulting in a final analytic sample of 5,699,861 encounters. Primary and Secondary Outcome MeasuresThe primary outcome was whether the index outpatient appointment was attended or unused (missed or cancelled). Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. MethodsPredictors included patient characteristics (demographics and insurance type), appointment characteristics (day, time, season, and urbanicity), prior cancellation rate, and time gap between the index appointment and the previous visit. We compared the predictive performance of two machine learning models (random forest classifier and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) with logistic regression. An explainable AI analysis of feature impact was performed on the final XGBoost model. ResultsAmong 5,699,861 outpatient encounters, 3,650,715 (64.0%) were attended and 2,049,146 (36.0%) were unused. XGBoost achieved the best predictive performance on the test dataset (AUC = 0.95), followed by random forest (AUC = 0.92) and logistic regression (AUC = 0.89). Feature impact score analysis revealed highly non-linear associations between predictors and the risk of unused appointments at the individual level. ConclusionsUnused outpatient appointments can be accurately predicted using routinely available EHR data. Integrating predictive models into scheduling workflows may improve healthcare efficiency and optimize appointment management. Article SummaryStrengths and limitations of this study O_LIThis study used one of the largest national electronic health record datasets to develop predictive models for unused outpatient appointments. C_LIO_LIMultiple modeling approaches, including logistic regression and machine learning methods (random forest and XGBoost), were compared to evaluate predictive performance. C_LIO_LIAn explainable artificial intelligence method was applied to quantify feature impact and improve model interpretability. C_LIO_LIThe retrospective design and reliance on routinely collected EHR data may introduce data quality limitations and unmeasured confounding. C_LIO_LIThe database did not distinguish clearly between cancelled appointments and no-shows. C_LI