Papillary muscles, ventricular loading, and atrial remodelling as beat-to-beat determinants of functional mitral regurgitation: an exploratory Granger causality study

Background Functional mitral regurgitation results from interacting mechanisms whose relative contributions vary between atrial and ventricular subtypes and shift dynamically within each heartbeat, producing temporal patterns that static analyses cannot capture. Objectives To identify which structural determinants predict mitral regurgitation variability beat to beat using Granger causality within vector autoregression, focusing on papillary muscle dynamics across subtypes. Methods Frame-level echocardiographic time series from 41 patients (21 atrial, 20 ventricular; 1,959 frames) were z-score standardised within patient. Individual (lag 3) and pooled (lag 2) vector autoregression models tested whether left ventricular volume, left atrial volume, papillary muscle length, and annulus diameter Granger-predict mitral regurgitation area. Results Individual models revealed marked heterogeneity. In pooled analysis, left ventricular volume was the strongest Granger predictor at short lags (atrial p=0.011; ventricular p=0.006), while left atrial volume emerged at longer lags (lag 7: atrial p=0.043; ventricular p=0.011). Systolic papillary muscle length was not predictive. Full-cycle analysis revealed a subtype-specific dissociation: papillary muscle length Granger-predicted regurgitation only in the ventricular subtype (p=0.001), while regurgitation predicted papillary muscle displacement only in the atrial subtype (p<0.001). Left ventricular volume dominated within-beat prediction but lost cross-beat relevance in the ventricular subtype, while left atrial volume gained cross-beat predictive relevance in the atrial subtype. No structural determinant correlated with severity cross-sectionally. Conclusions Beat-to-beat vector autoregression and Granger modelling reveals heterogeneous, subtype-specific temporal patterns with distinct temporal windows of predictability for ventricular loading and papillary geometry. This framework may support patient-specific temporal phenotyping of functional mitral regurgitation.