A faster incubation explains Usutu leading West Nile in temperate Europe

Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that has recently expanded northwards in Europe and become endemic in the UK [1-3]. USUV emergence often precedes the closely related West Nile virus (WNV), potentially reflecting differences in epidemiological parameters [4, 5]. One key parameter is the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), the time required for a mosquito to become infectious following an infected blood meal. Here we present the first ever estimate of the temperature-dependent EIP for USUV in the vector Culex pipiens molestus. We were able to quantify the shortening of the EIP with temperature by re-analysing published laboratory data with bespoke Bayesian model that accounted for key features of the experimental design. Under typical UK summer temperatures, the median EIP (EIP50) of USUV is shorter than that of WNV, and the potential transmission season of USUV is both longer and geographically more extensive. Under RCP8.5 climate projections, WNV transmission suitability is expected to match or exceed current USUV levels between 2055 and 2065, highlighting the future threat to the UK from emerging mosquito-borne pathogens. Our findings support USUV as a precursor for WNV in northern Europe and provide a robust characterisation of a key epidemiological parameter of USUV, enabling accurate modelling of its transmission dynamics.