Climate-driven spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes infestation and dengue transmission in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil.

Dengue transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions that affect mosquito population dynamics and virus circulation. In Southern Brazil, where dengue historically occurred at low levels, recent climatic anomalies may be contributing to the expansion of Aedes vectors and an increase in local dengue incidence. This study investigated the spatiotemporal association between climatic variables, Aedes mosquito infestation and dengue cases in Porto Alegre (Southern Brazil, 2018 to 2025). Entomological, surveillance and climatic data were analyzed using Morans I and LISA for spatial association, Kendall correlation, polynomial regression and LASSO to identify relevant drivers and develop predictive models of mosquito infestation and dengue incidence. A strong spatial association between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus was observed, with persistent local clusters detected across all years. Annual climatic variables were associated with mosquito abundance in several districts. Overall, rainfall frequency had a stronger effect on Aedes aegypti abundance than accumulated rainfall. Temperature and lagged infestation indices showed strong association with both species and dengue incidence, with effects observed up to four weeks prior. Predictive models demonstrated good agreement between observed and predicted values, particularly within low to moderate infestation levels. Lagged variables were consistently retained in both mosquito infestation abundance and dengue incidence models, highlighting the importance of temporal predictors for anticipating vector dynamics and dengue risk. This approach is generally applicable for predicting Aedes infestation and disease incidence and emphasizes the importance of integrating entomological and climatic surveillance data to improve anticipation and detection of dengue risk periods and support more effective public health interventions.