Air Pollution, Health, and Economics: Evaluating the Impact of WHO targets and Guideline Values on Mortality and Morbidity in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background Ambient air pollution is a leading global health risk and disproportionately affects populations of Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). In 2021, WHO revised its Air Quality Guidelines (AQG), lowering recommended annual limits for Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2). We estimated the potential health and economic impacts of achieving WHO Interim Target 3 (IT3) and AQG concentrations across LMICs. Methods We conducted a health impact assessment across 136 LMICs to quantify one-year changes in all-cause and cause-specific mortality (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], and stroke) and disease incidence (COPD, dementia, IHD, and stroke) under WHO IT3 and AQG counterfactual scenarios for PM2.5 and NO2. Concentration-response functions were applied at 1km x 1km resolution. Economic welfare impacts of mortality risk reductions were estimated using country-adjusted values of a statistical life (VSL, Int$ PPP-adjusted 2021). Direct medical and productivity-related costs associated with incident cases were estimated using a cost-of-illness (COI) framework. Uncertainty intervals (UI) reflect uncertainty in concentration-response functions. Results Attainment of WHO IT3 and AQG concentrations for PM2.5 was associated with an estimated 16.04% reduction (6.58million, UI: 6.10-7.07million) and 22.97% reduction (9.43million, UI: 8.75-10.11million) in annual deaths, respectively. Corresponding VSL-based estimates of deaths averted were Int$5.5 trillion (7.0% of aggregate LMIC GDP) and Int$8.4 trillion (10.6% of GDP), respectively. For NO2, IT3 and AQG scenarios were associated with estimated reductions of approximately 1.06% (approximately 435,000 deaths, UI: 388,000-483,000) and 2.79% (435,000 deaths; UI: 388,000-483,000), yielding gains of Int$0.6 trillion (0.7% of GDP) and Int$1.5 trillion (1.9% of GDP). Disease-specific mortality reductions were most prominent for IHD and stroke in Asia and Africa. Under the PM2.5 AQG scenario, an estimated 2.82million (1.67-2.97) COPD, 1.10million (0.83-1.37) dementia, 7.3million (6.41-8.19) IHD, and 2.3million (2.19-2.41) stroke cases could be delayed or averted in one year. Associated reductions in direct medical and productivity-related costs were greatest for IHD, COPD, and stroke. NO2-related morbidity reductions were smaller across all outcomes. All estimates represent one-year changes in risk relative to counterfactual exposure and may reflect delayed rather than permanently avoided events. Discussion Achieving both WHO IT3 and AQG values in LMICs could yield substantial reductions in premature mortality and disease incidence, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, alongside large, monetised welfare gains from reduced mortality risk. These findings underscore the considerable societal value of air quality improvements and support accelerated action toward meeting WHO guideline levels in regions bearing the highest pollution burden.