ECG spectrogram-based deep learning model to predict deterioration of patients with early sepsis at the emergency department: a study from the Acutelines data- and biobank

Purpose: Early recognition of deterioration in patients with suspected infection at the emergency department (ED) is important. Current clinical scoring systems show limited discriminative performance for early deterioration. Continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings may offer additional dynamic physiological information that can enhance early prediction of deterioration in patients with suspected infection. Methods: We developed a multimodal, ECG-derived spectrogram-based pipeline to predict deterioration within 48 hours of ED admission. We used the first 20 minutes of ECG recordings for the spectrograms. We compared the model with the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), a baseline model with vital parameters, sex, and age, and a Heart Rate Variability (HRV) derived model. Results: In this study, 1321 patients were included, of whom 159 (12%) deteriorated. The multimodal model combining baseline data with spectrograms showed the best overall performance, with an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) of 0.788, followed by the baseline model (age, sex, triage vitals) alone, with an AUROC of 0.730. The HRV-only model and the qSOFA showed the lowest performance (AUROC 0.585 and 0.693, respectively). Conclusion: This study shows that ECG-derived multimodal spectrogram models outperform those based solely on vital signs and HRV features, as well as established clinical scores such as NEWS and qSOFA. Spectrogram analysis represents a promising approach to enhance early risk stratification and support clinical decision-making for patients with suspicion of infection in the ED.