Earlier flowering explains only a small part of experimental drought's effects on wildflower's population growth

Timing of flowering is shifting with climate change. Although climate-driven shifts in phenology sometimes affect seed production, whether changing phenology will scale up to affect population dynamics of long-lived plants remains largely unknown, particularly under changing precipitation. Understanding how phenology affects persistence and extinction risk is a pressing need given contemporary biodiversity loss. We combined nearly a decade of demographic censuses and a four-year phenological survey in a rainfall manipulation experiment to examine the effects of experimental drought and irrigation on flowering phenology, vital rates (e.g., survival and individual growth), and population growth in the perennial herb Lomatium utriculatum. We found that drought advanced flowering by 3.3 days on average, and that earlier-flowering plants produced more seeds regardless of treatment. However, both rainfall treatments reduced seed production compared to controls. We quantified the phenology-mediated and direct, non-phenological effects of rainfall manipulation on population growth rates using integral projection models and a life table response experiment. Drought and irrigation increased {lambda} through increased individual growth, but these effects were partially negated by treatment-driven declines in seed output. In contrast, changes to seed production resulting from shifting flowering times had negligible effects on population growth. Our results suggest that climate-driven phenological shifts may only marginally impact population dynamics in perennial plants and highlight that assessing phenologys consequences for persistence under climate change must also account for direct demographic effects of the climate driver(s) themselves. SignificanceWill changing flowering times under climate change increase extinction risk in plant populations? Despite well-documented earlier flowering and its influence on the number of offspring produced, how changing flowering times will affect population growth or decline is still mostly unknown. We study this in a perennial wildflower subject to changes in rainfall. While we found that drought meant earlier flowering and that, all else equal, early flowering meant more seeds, these effects only marginally affected population growth. Instead, population growth was influenced mostly by rainfall-driven changes to individual plant growth. While shifting flowering times remain an important indicator of climate change, assessing extirpation in plants requires considering flowering times as only one of many life cycle processes changing with climate.