Variant-Level Functional Classification of Monoallelic TP53 Mutations Refines Prognostic Stratification in Myelodysplastic Neoplasms Beyond Allelic Status

TP53 mutations represent one of the strongest adverse prognostic factors in myelodysplastic neoplasms (MDS). While multi-hit TP53 (TP53multiHit) alterations uniformly lead to very poor outcomes, the prognostic relevance of monoallelic TP53 (TP53mono) mutations remains controversial. TP53 variants can cause loss-of-function, dominant-negative, or gain-of-function effects. We hypothesized that functional heterogeneity among TP53 variants contributes to the variable clinical behavior observed in monoallelic TP53-mutated MDS. Therefore, we analyzed pretreatment samples from 4,505 patients with MDS from two independent cohorts (IWG, n=3,173; J-MDS, n=1,332), including 271 patients with TP53mono and 499 with TP53multiHit. Functional annotation of TP53 variants was performed using a previously published phenotype score (PS) derived from saturation mutagenesis screens, capturing dominant-negative and loss-of-function effects. Median overall survival (OS) differed significantly by TP53 allelic state (TP53 wild-type (TP53wt) 42.4 months; TP53mono 22.9 months; TP53multiHit 9.2 months; p < 0.001). Within the TP53mono subgroup, functional annotation identified marked heterogeneity. Patients with high PS ([&ge;]7) showed significantly inferior OS compared with those with low PS (median OS: 13.8 vs. 39.2 months; HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.16-2.42; p = 0.006), particularly for IPSS-R and IPSS-M low-risk cases. Combining PS and variant allele frequency (VAF) further improved risk stratification. TP53mono patients with PS [&ge;]7 and VAF [&ge;]22% had outcomes comparable to TP53multiHit (median OS: 8.8, p = 0.2), whereas those with PS <7 and VAF <22% exhibited survival similar to TP53wt (median OS: 49.7, p = 0.9). Overall, functional annotation of TP53 variants refines prognostication in TP53mono-mutated MDS and may enhance individualized risk assessment.