Estimating eligibility for GLP-1 receptor agonists for chronic weight management and cardiovascular disease in Australia

Objectives To estimate population-level eligibility for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) medications among adults in Australia, according to Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approved indications for chronic weight management and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Design Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2022 National Health Survey. Setting, Participants Non-pregnant adults [≥] aged 18 years who are usual residents of Australia and living in a private dwelling. Main outcome measures Total number of adults who are eligible for GLP-1RA medications according to TGA approved indications for chronic weight management and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, across subgroups defined by body mass index, weight-related comorbidities, and/or socio-demographic factors. Results In total, 39.7% (95% CI 38.4 - 41.0%) of adults in Australia are eligible for GLP-1RA use for chronic weight management, accounting for 7.8 million (95% CI, 7.6 - 8.1 million) individuals. Among those eligible under this indication, 2.9 million (95% CI 2.7 - 3.1 million) adults had no weight-related comorbidities, 3.3 million (95% CI 3.1 - 3.4 million) adults had at least 1 weight-related comorbidity, and 1.7 million (95% CI 1.6 - 1.8 million) adults had at least 2 weight-related comorbidities. The proportion of adults eligible under this indication varied across clinical and sociodemographic factors. Among those eligible under the chronic weight management indication, up to 338.9 thousand (95% CI 271.3 - 406.5 thousand) adults also meet the indication for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Conclusions More than one third of Australian adults are eligible to access GLP-1RAs for chronic weight management, with 3.7-4.3% of adults also qualifying according to the indication for established cardiovascular disease. This study provides a valuable reference to allow policy makers to understand the number of adults in Australia that may benefit from access to GLP-1RA medications under a range of coverage scenarios.