Emerging invasion risks of non-native urban trees in continental Europe under a changing climate

Urban green areas often harbour numerous non-native urban trees, many of which have characteristics that predispose them to escape from cultivation and become potentially invasive. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk by creating favourable conditions for species that are currently climatically restricted. The potential risks for invasiveness of urban tree species in continental Europe are not yet known. Here, we provide a comprehensive risk screening of 34 non-native urban tree species in continental Europe, for both current and projected future climate scenarios. Using the Terrestrial Plant Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (TPS-ISK v2.4), we assessed invasion risk based on biogeography, ecology, and projected responses to climate change. Results showed that under current conditions, 10 species (29.4%) were categorised as high risk, 23 (67.6%) as medium risk and one (2.9%) as low risk. The inclusion of climate change projections increased the number of high risk species to 11, with seven species categorised as very high risk. These taxa exhibit strong ecological plasticity, high reproductive performance and broad environmental tolerance, which together with projected warming, emphasises their significant potential for further spread. Our results emphasise the urgent need for early detection, continuous monitoring and proactive management of non-native urban trees in Europe, especially those that are widely used in horticulture and forestry. By integrating invasion biology with climate change risk screening, this study provides an important basis for evidence-based policy and management strategies to mitigate future ecological and economic impacts of invasions by urban trees.