Differential Network-Based Causal Graph Learning for Cardiovascular Recurrence Risk Prediction and Factor Discovery

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, with myocardial infarction (MI) being a major cause of both morbidity and mortality among cardiovascular patients. MI Patients face a higher risk of cardiovascular disease recurrence afterwards. Therefore, accurately predicting the risk of recurrence and identifying key risk factors are crucial for clinical decision-making. In this paper, we consider the interrelationships among cardiovascular factors from a systemic perspective. We first construct a differential network for each patient to capture individual-specific deviations in factor relationships and propose a novel method, termed Causal Factor-aware Graph Neural Network (CFGNN), which integrates factor interactions to predict the recurrence risk of MI patients while uncovering key risk factors from a causal perspective. Experimental results demonstrate that CFGNN performs well on hospital-derived datasets in real world, effectively identifying several key risk factors. This method not only deepens our understanding of cardiovascular disease, but also paves the way for more targeted and effective interventions.