Policy precision reveals action-phase impulsivity in women with premenstrual syndrome during risk-taking

The Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) is widely used to assess risk-taking and impulsivity, yet existing computational models struggle to unify sequential and prior evaluation strategies or fully capture uncertainty-driven information-seeking behavior. To address this, we introduce a novel computational framework grounded in the Active Inference Framework (AIF), which conceptualizes behavior as the minimization of expected free energy. Model comparisons demonstrate that AIF-based models statistically outperform existing benchmarks. Furthermore, we applied this framework to investigate impulsivity in women with Premenstrual Syndrome (PMS). Our model revealed that the PMS group exhibited significantly higher values in inverse precision of policy ({beta}0) and the phase difference of this parameter was only observed in PMS group. This suggests that high {beta}0 serves as a robust computational marker, reflecting both the trait impulsivity inherent in PMS and its state-like exacerbation across the menstrual cycle. Lastly, our findings indicate that impulsivity in PMS manifests not as a learning deficit, but as heightened sensitivity to trial-by-trial sequential evaluation at the expense of stable, pre-planned prior policies. This framework provides a neurobiologically plausible and mechanistically granular understanding of risk-taking, offering new avenues for computational psychiatry.