Combining new interventions with urban development as a path to effective, consistent, and durable control of dengue
Perkins, A.; Susong, K. M.; Tiley, K.; Majumder, A.; Ratnavale, S.; Alkuzweny, M.; Kraemer, M. U. G.; Clapham, H. E. J.; Brady, O. J.
Show abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted viral disease that has long defied control but now has a growing list of promising interventions becoming available. Major investments in these interventions are being made without a clear picture of the long-term implications of those choices. We used a mathematical model to project the impacts of alternative suites of interventions across 1,634 cities to the year 2050. We found that recently developed interventions have the potential for significant reductions in dengue hospitalisations over a period of a few years. Beyond that timeframe, our model predicts a buildup of susceptibility that diminishes intervention effectiveness over time. Routine vaccination leads to only modest reductions when layered on top of other interventions. The most effective and sustainable strategy combines short-term investments in new interventions with long-lasting changes to remove mosquito habitat in urban environments, resulting in > 90% reductions in disease burden in all cities over a 25-year period.
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