Uncovering genetic mechanisms underlying trait variation in switchgrass using explainable artificial intelligence

Uncovering the genetic architecture of quantitative traits is challenging because polygenic control yields small individual gene effects and because gene-gene and genotype-by-environment interactions add further complexity. To understand the genetic basis of polygenic traits and their plasticity across environments, we integrated genome-wide SNPs and RNA-seq transcript data with interpretable statistical and machine learning models in a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) diversity panel grown at contrasting field sites in Michigan and Texas. Notably, in addition to single environments, our trait prediction models were able to predict phenotypic differences, across environments i.e., plasticity. By interpreting trait prediction models with explainable artificial intelligence methods, we identified important features--genes that are the most predictive of flowering time and annual biomass production across environments, based on their associated gene expression levels and nearby SNPs. This approach recovered canonical flowering regulators and revealed novel, environment-specific candidate flowering genes. Further, transcriptome models consistently recovered more switchgrass genes homologous to experimentally validated genes in Arabidopsis and rice than SNP-based models. Feature interaction scores from the models also allow the identification of trait- and environment-dependent gene-gene interactions, where flowering time showed stronger and more abundant interactions than biomass. While some of the interactions identified are consistent with the link between flowering time and yield, most are novel predictors that need to be further evaluated. Together, these results demonstrate that interpretable genomic prediction with explainable artificial intelligence approaches can convert trait prediction models into mechanistic hypotheses about putative causal genes and interactions controlling traits within and across environments. These results will help to prioritize target genes for validation and inform germplasm selection for cultivar improvement.