Creating complete life histories of individual female tsetse (Glossina spp) to study the effects of meteorological conditions on fly size in Zimbabwe

Combining novel methodologies with ovarian dissection, we estimated life histories for ca. 90,000 individual female Glossina pallidipes and G. m. morsitans sampled from 1988-1999 in Zimbabwes Zambezi Valley. Using temperature-dependent development rates we stepped back through each flys life, fixing dates of successive pregnancies, adult emergence, pupal period, pregnancy and oogenesis. This enabled modelling of relationships between wing and egg lengths, and conditions prevailing when these lengths were being determined. Egg lengths increased with maternal wing length, were shorter in primiparous flies but changed little with age thereafter. G. pallidipes egg lengths were positively related to NDVI and negatively to temperature (R2 = 0.68), for variables averaged over the period of oogenesis for each fly, and then averaged again across weekly cohorts of flies. G. m. morsitans mean egg lengths, pooled by month, showed the same pattern (R2 = 0.53). Pooled mean wing lengths increased with NDVI and decreased with temperature prevailing while flies were developing in the ovaries and uterus; R2= 0.66 (G. pallidipes) and R2= 0.56 (G. m. morsitans). The models - fitted using flies captured after November 1991 - gave good predictions, with no further modeling, for egg and wing lengths of flies captured between September 1988 and November 1991. The models facilitate true predictions of future changes in fly size based on readily available meteorological data, benefiting vector and disease control efforts in predicting likely changes in tsetse population densities and distribution. Selection against small individuals in the hot-dry season is not restricted to teneral mortality continuing for some weeks after emergence. NDVI, measures of wetness and temperature can indirectly impact tsetse size, mortality and population density by affecting vertebrate host density and, thereby, the probability of tsetse locating and feeding on a host. Our methodology impacts numerous areas of vector biology and control.