Early clonal dominance at priming sets the trajectory for broad HIV serum neutralization

Inducing broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) remains a central challenge in HIV vaccine development 1-3. Germline-targeting immunogens are designed to activate rare bnAb precursor B cell lineages 4-12, yet the relationships between priming efficiency, clonal dominance, and downstream serum neutralization remain poorly defined. We recently demonstrated that vaccination with an engineered V2-apex germline-targeting trimer Q23-APEX-GT2 successfully recruits and activates rare long-CDRH3 B cell precursors in outbred macaques 13. Here, we dissect the immunological mechanisms governing bnAb precursor priming and early B cell expansion and define clonal features that drive progression to serum neutralization breadth. Our antigen-specific B cell analyses showed that Q23-APEX-GT2 consistently engaged long-CDRH3 precursors, although priming efficiency varied across animals. Longitudinal deep lineage tracing across lymph node and blood compartments revealed that early recruitment of multiple diverse long-CDRH3 lineages, followed by preferential expansion and dominance of one or two clones, strongly predicted serum neutralization potency. Subsequent CAP256.SU SHIV infection efficiently recalled vaccine-seeded clones, accelerated affinity maturation, and drove broad heterologous neutralization in most animals. Notably, one macaque with diverse and expanded V2-apex lineages rapidly achieved [~]70% serum neutralization breadth. Importantly, longitudinal tracing revealed that bona fide bnAbs can emerge from vaccine-primed precursors, while also uncovering "born-wrong" bnAb-like lineages that expand yet remain non-neutralizing, despite structurally validated recognition of the V2-apex bnAb site. Together, these findings establish priming efficiency coupled with early clonal dominance as key determinants of serum bnAb induction and provide a mechanistic framework to guide rational HIV vaccine design.