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Stage Slip from Diagnostic Latency in MCED Trials: A Calibrated Monte Carlo Reconstruction of the NHS-Galleri Results

2026-03-03 oncology Title + abstract only
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BackgroundThe NHS-Galleri trial reported a substantial reduction in Stage IV cancer diagnoses and a four-fold increase in cancer detection rates, but did not meet its primary endpoint of reducing combined Stage III+IV diagnoses in a prespecified group of 12 cancers. We hypothesize that stage slip-- progression of cancers from Stage I/II to Stage III during diagnostic workup--is the primary mechanism behind this statistical masking. MethodsWe developed a Monte Carlo simulation of 142,000 partici...

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