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Spatial Clustering of School Susceptibles Drives Divergent US Measles Outbreaks

2026-02-27 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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The two largest US measles outbreaks in over two decades (2025 Gaines County, Texas: 414 cases, contained; 2025-2026 Spartanburg County, South Carolina: 923+ cases, ongoing) occurred in counties with similar sub-threshold K-12 MMR coverage (85.1% vs 88.8%), yet their trajectories diverged dramatically. Using kernel density estimation with a common bandwidth and bootstrap uncertainty quantification, we compared sub-county vaccination data at the district level for Texas (3 districts, 3,560 studen...

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