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Epidemiological characteristics and vaccination impact scenario modelling of concurrent Clade I mpox outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi
2026-02-27
public and global health
Title + abstract only
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In 2024, mpox cases surged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with cross-border spread to Burundi. We developed a transmission-dynamic model calibrated against surveillance data to understand drivers in enzootic (Clade Ia) and non-enzootic (Clade Ib) areas, and the potential impact of vaccination. In non-enzootic areas we estimated that 58-84% of transmission occurred within sexual networks. MVA-BN vaccination of sex workers could have averted 91% (95% CrI 81%-98%) of infections in Su...
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