A Novel Phenotyping Approach for Reconciling Precision and Variance in Disease Severity Estimates from High-resolution Imaging

1Accurate quantification of plant disease is essential for resistance breeding, variety testing, and precision agriculture, yet visual ratings are limited by subjectivity, low precision, and restricted throughput. Image-based phenotyping can address these limitations, but field applications face substantial challenges due to spatial heterogeneity, symptom-level diagnostic requirements, and the need for very high-resolution imagery with limited spatial coverage. This introduces a fundamental trade-off: high-resolution images provide precise local measurements of disease, but spot-level estimates can be highly variable within experimental units. We analyzed a large image data set of wheat foliar diseases to characterize the distribution, spatial dependence, and aggregation behavior of spot-level severity estimates in plots. We combined high-resolution macro-scale imaging with focus bracketing to increase the sampled leaf area. Our results highlight focus bracketing as a promising approach for simultaneous diagnosis and quantification of disease in field plots. Autocorrelation in severity estimates both within focal image stacks and across plot positions was comparable, with 10 focal stack images or 10 positions per plot contributing approximately 2.5 independent observations each. Modeling plot-level severity as a latent Beta-distributed variable enabled robust estimation of mean severity and associated uncertainty. This supports both hypothesis testing and efficient sampling across the full range of disease severity associated with genotypic diversity and seasonality of developing epidemics. The proposed imaging approach is non-invasive and, in principle, transferrable to autonomous ground-based phenotyping platforms, offering the potential to shift the dominant source of uncertainty in estimating disease severity from measurement-related limitations toward biologically and environmentally driven variability in disease expression.