Persistent adaptational lag to climate threatens future tree populations, but phenotype-informed assisted gene flow can mitigate its effects
Goetz, A. R. B.; Ochoa, M. E.; Badillo, B.; Wright, J. W.; Sork, V. L.
Show abstract
Lagging adaptation to historical climates places trees at risk of future population declines, increasing vulnerability as temperatures rise. We used a range-wide provenance experiment of valley oaks (Quercus lobata) to test whether tree performance reflects adaptational lag, whether its magnitude increases or declines with age or interannual climate variation, and whether phenotype-informed assisted gene flow can mitigate future maladaptation. Modeling growth and survival across climatic gradients revealed that 12-year-old trees are best adapted to temperatures cooler than their source locations and often cooler than the coldest climates currently occupied by the species. This pattern of adaptational lag was strongest in hotter years, indicating that climatic variability exacerbates maladaptation. Despite this pattern, planting high-performing individuals from multiple climatic origins was predicted to improve future population performance. Our results demonstrate persistent, climate-dependent adaptational lag in a widespread foundation tree species and highlight the potential for phenotype-informed assisted gene flow to mitigate maladaptation.
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