Comparing modelled HIV incidence estimates with empirical HIV incidence observations in high-burden HIV African epidemic settings: systematic review and meta-regression

2026-02-05 hiv aids Title + abstract only

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BackgroundHIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa has declined substantially since 2000 according to epidemic estimates published by UNAIDS. These estimates, derived by fitting mathematical models to national surveillance data, guide HIV programmes and epidemic response strategies. We assessed whether the level and age distribution of HIV incidence from modelled estimates were consistent with empirical HIV incidence observations, and whether incidence levels and trends were systematically different ...

Comparing modelled HIV incidence estimates with empirical HIV incidence observations in high-burden HIV African epidemic settings: systematic review and meta-regression

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