Predictive Modeling of COVID-19 Variant Peak Prevalence and Duration Using GISAID Data Across 15 Countries

2026-02-05 infectious diseases Title + abstract only

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BackgroundRapid emergence and replacement of SARS-CoV-2 variants underscore the need for early and reliable indicators of variant dominance to guide timely public health response. However, early genomic trajectories are typically short, sparse, and noisy, with strong fluctuations and substantial cross-country heterogeneity in sequencing intensity and reporting. MethodsWe develop a scalable forecasting framework that predicts whether new variants will reach high prevalence and how long they will...

Predictive Modeling of COVID-19 Variant Peak Prevalence and Duration Using GISAID Data Across 15 Countries

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