Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter in China with Regional Disparities: Epidemiological Trends and Projections to 2050 from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2021)

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation and flutter (AF/AFL) represent a major global public health challenge, contributing significantly to stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular mortality. While previous studies have documented a rising AF/AFL burden, comprehensive comparisons of long-term trends and forecasts across regions--particularly benchmarking China against Southeast Asia, Europe, and global averages--remain limited. This study aims to quantify the AF/AFL burden across these regions from 1990 to 2021 and project trends to 2050. MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analysed the burden of AF/AFL from 1990 to 2021 in China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and globally. We examined incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Advanced analytical methods, including Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modelling, decomposition analysis, Frontier analysis and Bayesian forecasting were employed to assess trends, drivers, and projections to 2050. FindingFrom 1990 to 2021, China experienced the most rapid increase in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) globally (AAPC +0.16%), with incident cases rising to 916,180, accounting for 20.43% of the global total. In contrast, Europe saw a slight decline in ASIR, while the global ASIR remained stable. China also recorded the largest increase in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), whereas Europes ASPR declined. Despite rising incidence, China achieved the sharpest reduction in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR; AAPC -0.45%), while Southeast Asias ASMR increased (AAPC +0.76%), and Europe maintained the highest ASMR globally. Frontier analysis highlighted Chinas rapid efficiency improvements in mortality reduction relative to its SDI, outperforming several high-income European countries. Projections to 2050 suggest Chinas ASIR and ASPR will continue to rise, whereas Europes are forecast to decline. Southeast Asia faces persistently increasing mortality, and global aggregates mask significant regional heterogeneity. ConclusionAF/AFL burdens are increasingly driven by population aging and metabolic risks, with heterogeneous mortality trends reflecting regional disparities in healthcare access and prevention. China s success in reducing mortality despite rising incidence highlights the impact of improved anticoagulation and stroke prevention, yet unchecked prevalence growth signals future complications. Southeast Asia s rising mortality underscores urgent needs for equitable resource allocation, while Europes stagnant burden reflects challenges in aging populations. Globally, prioritising primordial prevention--such as metabolic risk control--alongside targeted screening and gender-specific interventions, is critical to mitigating AF/AFL-related morbidity and mortality. Future efforts should integrate digital health technologies and address structural barriers to optimize care efficiency worldwide. Research in ContextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSPrior to undertaking this analysis, we systematically reviewed the existing epidemiological literature on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL), with a particular emphasis on global and regional comparative studies. Our searches covered PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) repository from January 1990 to December 2023, without language restrictions. Key terms included "atrial fibrillation," "atrial flutter," "global burden," "epidemiology," "trend," and "GBD." We included studies providing representative estimates of AF/AFL burden and excluded small-sample or non-age-standardized reports. Previous analyses indicated a rising global AF/AFL burden, largely due to population aging and improved detection. However, comprehensive assessments capturing temporal dynamics, risk drivers, and forecasting across major world regions--especially benchmarking China, Southeast Asia, and Europe against global patterns--remained limited. Most studies focused on isolated regions or short spans, lacking integrative multidimensional approaches such as age-period-cohort modeling, decomposition, or Bayesian forecasting. Added value of this studyThis study provides a comprehensive and comparative assessment of the atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL) burden across China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and globally from 1990 to 2021, utilizing the latest GBD 2021 data and advanced statistical methodologies, including Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modeling, Bayesian forecasting, decomposition analysis, and data envelopment frontier analysis. Our analysis reveals significant regional disparities against a backdrop of global stability: while the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) remained stable (52{middle dot}51 in 1990 vs. 52{middle dot}12 in 2021), China experienced the most rapid increase worldwide (ASIR rising from 42{middle dot}63 to 44{middle dot}92), with a substantial number of new cases (916,180), accounting for 20{middle dot}43% of the global total (4,484,926 cases). In contrast, Europe recorded a slight decline in ASIR. China also demonstrated the most pronounced increase in prevalence globally, while Europes age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) declined and the global rate remained largely unchanged. Notably, China achieved a significant reduction in mortality (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] declining from 4{middle dot}93 to 4{middle dot}33) despite rising incidence, sharply contrasting with Southeast Asia, where ASMR increased from 2{middle dot}94 to 4{middle dot}06 (estimated annual percentage change +1{middle dot}07%)--trends potentially associated with structural challenges in Southeast Asia--while Europe maintained the highest ASMR globally (5{middle dot}10 in 2021) despite interventions. We further identified key drivers: population growth and aging accounted for the majority of the case increase in China, consistent with global demographic trends, while metabolic risk factors accelerated this trend. Gender and age analyses revealed a global pattern of later-life predominance in women and earlier onset in middle-aged groups, particularly pronounced in China. Our projections to 2050 indicate a continued rise in ASIR and ASPR in China, reinforcing its significant and growing contribution to the global AF/AFL burden, whereas other regions face divergent challenges--Southeast Asia is projected to experience persistently increasing mortality pressure, while Europe must address persistently high disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates, masking mortality gains in an aging population. Implications of all the available evidenceThe collective evidence from this study and previous research underscores that AF/AFL remains a critical and growing public health challenge worldwide, characterized by heterogeneous patterns across regions when viewed against the global aggregate. Chinas success in reducing mortality within a rising incidence environment highlights the potential of enhanced clinical management and stroke prevention, yet its unchecked prevalence growth--especially among younger cohorts--signals a looming surge in complications absent strengthened primary prevention, a concern mirrored in many developing economies. Southeast Asias rising mortality underscores urgent needs for improved access to anticoagulation and rhythm control, while Europes stagnant burden reflects challenges in managing an aging population efficiently. These findings advocate for regionally tailored strategies that align with global frameworks but address local disparities--integrating primordial prevention (e.g., metabolic risk control) with early detection, gender-specific treatment, and equitable resource allocation. Future research should prioritize mechanistic studies of AF/AFL subtypes, real-world intervention assessments, and the integration of digital health technologies for scalable screening and management, thereby informing coordinated global actions to mitigate the evolving burden of AF/AFL.