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SEVA: An externally driven framework for reproducing COVID-19 mortality waves without transmission feedback

2026-02-03 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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BackgroundCOVID-19 epidemic waves display pronounced temporal structure in mortality, with substantial variation in wave shape, duration, and asymmetry across regions. These dynamics are commonly interpreted within transmission-based compartmental models, in which epidemic growth is driven by interactions between infectious and susceptible individuals. However, several empirical features of observed mortality curves, including prolonged declines, asymmetric wave shapes, and coherent temporal pat...

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