Back

Multiscale Modelling Reveals Accelerating Community Outbreak Risks of Measles in the United States

2026-01-30 public and global health Title + abstract only
View on medRxiv
Show abstract

Measles resurgence in high-income countries that previously achieved elimination reveals a critical surveillance failure: current systems rely on county-level aggregates that obscure fine-scale clustering where outbreaks originate. We assembled the nationwide multiscale vaccination database spanning 45 US states (2013-2025), encompassing over 50,000 schools, 13,000 districts, and 3,000 counties. We developed a gravity-based transmission framework and demonstrate that school-level effective repro...

Predicted journal destinations

1
Nature Communications
483 training papers
#1 36.3%
2
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
100 training papers
Top 0.3% 8.7%
3
Scientific Reports
701 training papers
Top 35% 6.6%
4
PLOS ONE
1737 training papers
Top 84% 4.3%
5
eLife
262 training papers
Top 10% 4.3%
6
PLOS Computational Biology
141 training papers
Top 4% 4.3%
7
Epidemics
96 training papers
Top 5% 2.2%
8
BMC Medicine
155 training papers
Top 10% 2.1%
9
Journal of Theoretical Biology
29 training papers
Top 1% 1.7%
10
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
54 training papers
Top 3% 1.7%
11
Nature Medicine
88 training papers
Top 6% 1.5%
12
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
166 training papers
Top 12% 1.5%
13
BMC Public Health
148 training papers
Top 21% 1.5%
14
Science Advances
52 training papers
Top 3% 1.1%
15
Clinical Infectious Diseases
219 training papers
Top 22% 1.1%
16
American Journal of Epidemiology
54 training papers
Top 9% 0.8%
17
Infectious Disease Modelling
50 training papers
Top 7% 0.8%
18
Scientific Data
30 training papers
Top 4% 0.8%
19
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
137 training papers
Top 16% 0.8%
20
JAMA Network Open
125 training papers
Top 28% 0.8%
21
BMJ Global Health
95 training papers
Top 19% 0.8%
22
Frontiers in Public Health
135 training papers
Top 31% 0.8%
23
Science
46 training papers
Top 6% 0.8%
24
Vaccine
140 training papers
Top 10% 0.8%
25
PLOS Global Public Health
287 training papers
Top 32% 0.8%
26
Emerging Infectious Diseases
84 training papers
Top 15% 0.8%
27
Epidemiology
26 training papers
Top 4% 0.5%
28
The Lancet Regional Health - Americas
20 training papers
Top 0.9% 0.5%
29
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
45 training papers
Top 14% 0.5%
30
Communications Medicine
63 training papers
Top 10% 0.5%