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Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations

2026-01-27 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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Assessing epidemic risk following pathogen introduction is crucial in infectious disease epidemiology. Risk is commonly encoded through reproduction ratios, which underpin operational decision-making. In spatially structured populations, both local and cross-community transmission shape epidemic trends, a feature that standard reproduction ratios fail to capture simultaneously. Here, we use multitype branching processes to define the outbreak reproduction ratio Rob, a reformulation applicable ac...

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