Punctuated memory change: The temporal dynamics and brain basis of memory stability in aging
Fjell, A.; Grodem, E. O. S.; Vidal-Pineiro, D.; Rogeberg, O.; Sorensen, O.; Garrido, P. F.; Watne, L. O.; Lundquist, A.; Nyberg, L.; Walhovd, K. B.
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Are there individuals who resist episodic memory decline into older age? Analyzing 728,000 memory tests from 80,000 participants with at least 4 assessments, we introduce a simulation-calibrated framework to identify genuine memory stability. Across cohorts and models, [~]10% of adults [≥]70 years showed stable performance over a decade. In an MRI subgroup (n{approx}2,000), stable performers exhibited lower rates of brain atrophy across widespread regions, anchoring cognitive stability in structural brain maintenance. However, stability was often transient rather than trait-like: many individuals followed trajectories with extended plateaus of stable performance punctuated by episodes of accelerated decline. Accordingly, 54% showed at least one period of observed stability, averaging 10 years, whereas only 0.4% upheld stable performance over 24 years under the strictest definition. These findings are consistent with a complex-systems model of cognitive aging in which decline often reflects critical transitions rather than continuous erosion.
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