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Specifying prospective compartmental models of chronic disease

2026-01-16 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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BackgroundDetermining the impact of preventive interventions on future health and economic outcomes in a given population often requires parameterising disease models with forecast disease incidence, remission and case fatality rates. This paper outlines a method to specify these forecasts, using period estimates over several years from source data that are not necessarily coherent from a cohort perspective. MethodsFor a given chronic disease, the model is specified by first obtaining and smoot...

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