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Urbanisation as an Ecological Filter: Decoupling Lassa Virus Hazard from Spillover Risk in West Africa
2025-12-17
epidemiology
Title + abstract only
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Lassa fever is classically defined as a rural zoonosis constrained by the agricultural niche of its reservoir, Mastomys natalensis. However, current risk models rely on historical sampling heavily biased toward rural settings (>67%). Here, I reconstruct the realised niche of M. natalensis using an Integrated Multi-Species Occupancy Model (IMSOM) accounting for biotic interactions with invasive rodents. Contrary to climatic predictions of urban exclusion, I identify a cryptic reservoir niche in W...
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