Temperature and Ultraviolet Radiation Drive Divergent Visible and Near-Infrared Reflectance Patterns in Butterflies

O_LIClimate change poses extreme risks to biodiversity, threatening the ecosystems upon which humanity depends. Understanding the traits that mediate how organisms respond to climatic gradients in space and time will enable better predictions of the taxa and ecological communities most at risk from warming. C_LIO_LIIn insects, colouration influences thermoregulation, but warming responses must be traded off against other selective pressures. We hypothesise that butterfly wing reflectance in visible and near-infrared (NIR) spectra respond differently to temperature and ultraviolet radiation over space and time. We combined existing reflectance data of 97 butterfly species in both NIR and visible wavelengths, with long-term abundance monitoring data of 120 butterfly communities sampled across 1650 m altitude gradients from May to August in two time periods (2004/5 and 2017). C_LIO_LIThe visible and NIR reflectances of butterfly communities showed a non-linear relationship with altitude, with the lowest reflectance (darkest butterflies) at the coolest, highest sites. In contrast, community visible reflectance decreased through the year as temperatures warmed over spring-summer, whereas community NIR reflectance remained constant, revealing divergent responses of reflectance types to seasonal changes. Temperature had opposing effects on visible and NIR reflectance of butterfly communities, where increasing temperature reduced community visible reflectance strongly while increasing community NIR reflectance slightly. C_LIO_LIConsidering the effects on reflectance of shared evolutionary history in a Bayesian hierarchical model for individual species, lighter-coloured (more reflective) species were associated with warmer temperatures - flying later in spring-summer or at lower altitudes. However, instead of decreasing in reflectance through the year and across temperature gradients, species instead became lighter, we expect as a result of a Simpsons paradox. C_LIO_LIThese results emphasise how visible and NIR reflectance wavelength bands mediate butterflies responses to environmental gradients in distinct ways, despite being highly correlated across species. We also show that incorporating phylogeny into trait-environment models is essential; relying on traits alone would lead to incorrect inferences and predictions of taxa most at risk from warming climates. C_LI