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Reconstructing dengue transmission and assessing future outbreak risk in America Samoa, 2008-2023

Kiplagat, S. J.; Jones, F. K.; Hitchings, M. D. T.; Anesi, S.; Papu, A.; Desale, H.; Perez-Padilla, J.; Jones, E. S.; Delorey, M.; Adams, L. E.; Paz-Bailey, G.; Wong, J. M.; Konrote, A.

2025-12-18 epidemiology
10.64898/2025.12.16.25342376 medRxiv
Show abstract

American Samoa experienced multiple dengue outbreaks during 2008-2023. We employed a catalytic model to reconstruct historical dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics by estimating the annual force of infection (FOI) - or probability of DENV infection among susceptible individuals - during this period. We incorporated data from 661 dengue cases between 2016-2023 and two serosurveys. We also modeled the proportion of the population with 0, 1, or [≥]2 previous infections to assess population risk. We estimated elevated FOIs during 2009 (11%; 95% CrI: 2%-38%), 2010 (15%; 95% CrI: 5%-29%), 2017 (50%; 95% CrI: 37%-67%), and 2018 (13%; 95% CrI 7%-24%). The proportion of the population with 0 previous infections was 22% in 2016, declined to 11% following the 2017-2018 outbreak, and rebounded to 20% in 2023. Our findings indicate a pattern of episodic dengue transmission in American Samoa, with substantial fluctuations in population immunity over time.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.