Accounting for the long-distance transmission route: an epidemiological model of airborne disease transmission in hospitals

Nosocomial transmission of respiratory infections poses a major threat to patient safety, while also affecting healthcare workers (HCW) health, generating substantial costs for hospitals. These infections spread through both close-proximity interactions at short distances, and via aerosols that remain suspended in the air, enabling long-range transmission. The relative contribution of each transmission route is pathogen-dependent, and evidence to distinguish them remains scarce. Here, we propose an agent-based stochastic model of respiratory pathogen transmission in a hospital ward that integrates both transmission routes together with contact patterns and individual movements. After informing our model with real close-proximity interaction data collected in two French intensive care units, we simulate a range of combinations of short- and long-range transmission levels. We select parameter values that keep overall ward transmission intensity stable across combinations. We find that the predominance of one route over another has little effect on overall outbreak dynamics, though the impact on individuals varies markedly. Patients are mostly at risk of short-range transmission from HCWs, while HCWs are mostly affected by whichever route is predominant. This directly influences intervention effectiveness. Universal masking emerges as the most effective strategy, reducing both transmission routes. Its stringency can be relaxed with limited loss of effectiveness when combined with ventilation in relevant rooms. Importantly, intervention ranking remains robust across parameter values, as confirmed by a sensitivity analysis. This new model highlights the importance of explicitly considering physical mechanisms of transmission, and the need for interventions that remain effective irrespective of pathogen characteristics and ward organization.