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Instantaneous Reproduction Number Estimation From Modelled Incidence

2025-12-15 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) is a critical quantity in monitoring an infectious disease outbreak. We propose a new method for estimating Rt from an infectivity profile, expressed as a generation time distribution, and a time series of probabilistic estimates of disease incidence, modelled as log-normally distributed random variables. This is a common output of disease incidence models that are based on Poisson or negative binomial regression of case counts with a logarithmic link fu...

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