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Immune subphenotypes of tuberculosis and mortality in adults with sepsis and a high prevalence of HIV in East Africa

Edwards, L.; Jacob, S. T.; Majwala, A.; Banura, P.; Heysell, S. K.; Mpagama, S.; Null, M.; Thomas, T. A.; Rimoy, A.; Said, B.; Nuwagira, E.; Muzoora, C.; Sturek, J. M.; Moore, C.; Otoupalova, E.

2025-12-02 hiv aids
10.64898/2025.11.29.25341077 medRxiv
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IntroductionSepsis causes high mortality among people living with HIV in Africa, yet immune response data are limited. We identified immune subphenotypes of adults with sepsis and a high prevalence of HIV in East Africa. MethodsWe determined the association of serum cytokine and antibody concentrations with CD4+ T-cell and blood lactate concentration, tuberculosis, and 30-day mortality with K-means clustering, principal component analysis (PCA), and logistic regression. We validated results in a separate cohort of adults with sepsis in East Africa. ResultsOf 208 participants in the discovery cohort, 117 (56%) were female and 175 (84%) were living with HIV, with a mean ({+/-}SD) age of 35 ({+/-}10) years. Participants with tuberculosis had higher concentrations of G-CSF, IFN-{gamma}, IL-1{beta}, IL-6, IL-8, and MCP1MCAF, whereas mortality was associated with higher concentrations of G-CSF, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and MIP-1{beta}, and lower concentrations of IgM antibodies against oxidation-specific epidopes (IgMOSE). PCA identified G-CSF, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-13 as the main contributors to tuberculosis, and IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, and IL-13 as the main contributors to mortality. Comprehensive biomarker and clinical and multivariable models accurately predicted tuberculosis (AUC = 0.84) and mortality (AUC = 0.78), which was replicated in the validation cohort. Cross-testing showed that the tuberculosis model delineated pathogen-specific immune activation, while the mortality model represented non-pathogen-specific immune dysregulation. ConclusionsIn adults with sepsis and high HIV prevalence in East Africa, tuberculosis was associated with pathogen-specific inflammation, and mortality was associated with broader immune dysregulation and diminished IgMOSE antibody responses.

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