Dispersal dynamics and local filtering vary with climate across a grassland landscape

Dispersal dynamics and local filtering interactively generate regional vegetation patterns, but empirical evidence of their combined influence in nature is scarce, representing a missing link between our theoretical understanding of community assembly and real-world observation. Here, we compare seed and adult plant communities at twelve grassland sites with different climates in southern Norway to explore the degree to which community membership is shaped by dispersal limitation and local niche-based filtering, and how this varies with climate. To do this, we first divide species at each site into two groups: \"locally-transient\" species, which occur as seeds but are rare or absent as adults (i.e., they arrive but are filtered out), or \"locally-persistent\" species, which occur consistently as adults in annual vegetation surveys. We then ask questions to reveal where, when, why, and how locally-transient species are systematically disfavored during community assembly. Our results led to four main conclusions: (1) the strength of local filtering on community membership increased with temperature, (2) surprisingly, local filtering was stronger during seedling emergence than during seedling establishment, (3) climate-based niche differences drove differential performance among species, especially for seeds dispersing outside of their realized climate niches into more stressful (colder and drier) climates, and (4) locally-transient species had traits that may made them better dispersers (smaller seeds) but poorer competitors for light (shorter statures, less persistent clonal connections) than locally-persistent species, providing a potential explanation for why they arrived to new sites but failed to establish persistent adult populations. Our study is one of the first to combine seed, seedling, and adult survey data across multiple sites with different climates to provide a rigorous empirical evaluation of the combined influence of dispersal limitation and local filtering on the generation and maintenance of climate-associated vegetation patterns.