TrackSig: reconstructing evolutionary trajectories of mutations in cancer

We present a new method, TrackSig, to estimate the evolutionary trajectories of signatures of different somatic mutational processes from DNA sequencing data from a single, bulk tumour sample. TrackSig uses probability distributions over mutation types, called mutational signatures, to represent different mutational processes and detects the changes in the signature activity using an optimal segmentation algorithm that groups somatic mutations based on their estimated cancer cellular fraction (CCF) and their mutation type (e.g. CAG->CTG). We use two different simulation frameworks to assess both TrackSigs reconstruction accuracy and its robustness to violations of its assumptions, as well as to compare it to a baseline approach. We find 2-4% median error in reconstructing the signature activities on simulations with varying difficulty with one to three subclones at an average depth of 30x. The size and the direction of the activity change is consistent in 83% and 95% of cases respectively. There were an average of 0.02 missed and 0.12 false positive subclones per sample. In our simulations, grouping mutations by mutation type (TrackSig), rather than by clustering CCF (baseline strategy), performs better at estimating signature activities and at identifying subclonal populations in the complex scenarios like branching, CNA gain, violation of infinite site assumption, and the inclusion of neutrally evolving mutations. TrackSig is open source software, freely available at https://github.com/morrislab/TrackSig.