Diabetes mellitus mortality among elderly Brazilians, 2012-2022: an ecologic study

ObjectiveThis study aims to analyze the trend in the mortality rate due to Diabetes Mellitus among older adults in Brazil between 2012 and 2022. MethodsAn ecological study was conducted using secondary, publicly available data on deaths from DM (ICD-10 codes E10-E14) obtained from the Departamento de Informatica do Sistema Unico de Saude (DATASUS). Standardized mortality rates were calculated based on the world standard population proposed by Segi (1960) and modified by Doll et al. (1966). Temporal trends were analyzed using the Prais-Winsten regression model, which corrects for first-order autocorrelation in time series. The Moran Global Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) were applied to assess spatial dependence and to identify high- and low-risk clusters across Brazilian regions. ResultsBetween 2012 and 2022, Brazil recorded a total of [inserir numero] deaths from DM among older adults. The standardized national mortality rate showed a decreasing trend during the period; however, regional disparities were evident. The North and Northeast regions presented higher and more persistent rates compared to the South and Southeast, which showed a more consistent decline. Spatial analysis revealed significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Morans I = [valor]; p < 0.05), identifying clusters of high mortality in municipalities of the Northeast and North regions. ConclusionThe spatial and temporal analyses highlighted persistent regional inequalities in mortality due to DM in Brazil. While national mortality has declined, the concentration of high-risk clusters in socioeconomically vulnerable areas suggests that health interventions and policies must prioritize these regions. Understanding the spatial-temporal distribution of DM mortality contributes to more equitable public health planning, reinforcing the importance of targeted actions in prevention, early diagnosis, and access to continuous care for chronic conditions.