Predicting long-term waning of anti-spike antibody-dependent protection against COVID-19 across diverse SARS-CoV-2 immune histories
Numakura, K.; Miyamoto, S.; Sataka, A.; Takeyama, H.; Suzuki, T.
Show abstract
SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines elicit robust anti-spike (anti-S) and neutralizing antibody responses; however, their kinetics beyond one year and variation across complex combination of vaccination and infection histories remain unclear. We analyzed data from 25,800 Japanese adults from four nationwide sero-epidemiological surveys (December 2021 to March 2023). Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we characterized long-term antibody trajectories stratified by vaccine doses (2-5), infection history (uninfected, pre-Omicron, Omicron), and demographics. In uninfected participants, 3-5 vaccine doses induced higher peak anti-S titers and slower waning than two doses. Notably, a history of Omicron infection, but not a history of an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccination, was associated with sustained high anti-S and Omicron BA.5-neutralizing titers for over two years, irrespective of the number of vaccine doses. We then integrated these antibody-waning models with a correlates-of-protection model to predict the long-term decline in protection against symptomatic infection, stratified by specific immune history. These models provide a flexible framework for optimizing future vaccine-dosing intervals to minimize symptomatic infection risk across populations with diverse immune backgrounds.
Matching journals
The top 8 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Heterotypic vaccination responses against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 95%
- Potent and broadly neutralizing antibodies against sarbecoviruses induced by sequential COVID-19 vaccination 95%
- Bivalent mRNA vaccine booster induces robust antibody immunity against Omicron subvariants BA.2, BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection augments the magnitude and durability of systemic and mucosal immunity in triple-dose CoronaVac recipients 96%
- Hybrid immunity shifts the Fc-effector quality of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine-induced immunity 95%
- Antibody and memory B-cell immunity in a heterogeneously SARS-CoV-2 infected and vaccinated population 95%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.