CONCERT predicts niche-aware perturbation responses in spatial transcriptomics

Spatial perturbation transcriptomics measures how genetic or chemical edits alter gene expression while preserving tissue context. Perturbation outcomes depend on a cells intrinsic state and also on how effects propagate across cellular microenvironments. We present CONCERT, a niche-aware generative model that embeds perturbation context and learns spatial kernels with a Gaussian process variational autoencoder to predict perturbation effects across tissue. We formalize three tasks: patch, border, and niche, predicting responses in nearby unperturbed regions, at tissue interfaces, and as a function of surrounding microenvironments. We evaluate CONCERT on Perturb-map lung datasets. CONCERT outperforms state-of-the-art models (dissociated counterfactuals, spatialized perturbation models, and kNN), reducing E-distance by up to 33.77% (patch), 26.05% (border), and 33.74% (niche) versus the next best, with mean absolute error down by up to 23.28% and Pearson correlation up by up to 9.10%. Two case studies go beyond benchmarking. In dextran sodium sulfate-induced colitis, CONCERT reconstructs spatial gene expression at unmeasured time points, produces longitudinal comparisons across unpaired mice, resolves intermouse heterogeneity, and recovers consistent temporal declines of inflammation-associated genes across regions. In ischemic stroke, CONCERT predicts responses under variable lesion sizes and in a 3D formulation across brain sections, capturing lesion-core and peri-lesion patterns. CONCERT performs niche-aware counterfactual prediction, reconstructs missing spatial data, and models perturbation responses across tissues.