Early-life temperature drives recruitment success in Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) populations
Cavoy, V.; Guillard, J.; Barouillet, C.; Anneville, O.; Sharaf, N.; Gillet, C.; Goulon, C.
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Interannual fluctuations in the abundance of young-of-the-year (YOY) European perch (Perca fluviatilis) were studied in two large French peri-alpine lakes. Using a 12-year dataset of late-summer hydroacoustic surveys, we quantified YOY perch densities and explored their relationship with environmental drivers through Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Our analysis revealed a strong link between surface temperature during the embryonic phase and YOY recruitment success. Embryonic thermal conditions alone explained 44 to 88% of the variability in YOY density across lakes, confirming temperature as a key predictor of perch recruitment. In contrast, trophic factors and adult stock showed no consistent trends. These findings validate in natura the central role of spring thermal regimes in shaping recruitment and provide a framework to better understand recruitment variability under ongoing climate change.
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