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Distance to future climate analogues reveals refugia for agricultural adaptation

Geldbach Jones, A.; Pironon, S.; Friis, G.; Geldbach, D.; Borrell, J. S.

2025-11-03 ecology
10.1101/2025.10.31.685848 bioRxiv
Show abstract

Future climate trends are predicted to cause a dramatic shift in the geographic distribution of global agriculture. Mapping the distance to future analogues provides a crucial measure of adaptation potential, and reveals steep slope agriculture, regions with small field sizes, and ancient centres of crop domestication have more proximal climate analogues. Drawing parallels from wild biodiversity conservation, these landscapes could play a critical role as climate refugia for agrobiodiversity.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.