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Advancing coupled behavioural-epidemic models: An interdisciplinary framework for the collection of empirical data

Offeddu, V.; Colosi, E.; Lucchini, L.; Leone, L. P.; Chiavenna, C.; Balsamo, D.; D'Agnese, E.; Bonacina, F.; Cucciniello, M.; Trentini, F.; Aleta, A.; Manfredi, P.; Moreno, Y.; Karsai, M.; Colizza, V.; Koltai, J.; Melegaro, A.

2025-10-08 infectious diseases
10.1101/2025.10.07.25337410 medRxiv
Show abstract

Infection control requires integrating behavioural dynamics into epidemic models. However, models often overlook behavioural complexity due to limited empirical data. We adopted an interdisciplinary approach to develop a modelling-oriented behavioural dataset. We applied the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behaviour (COM-B) framework to assess COVID-19 vaccination behaviour from 22,228 survey responses across six European countries (March-July 2024). We examined how willingness to vaccinate aligned with uptake and timeliness, and traced country-specific temporal changes in perceived COVID-19 severity and willingness. To capture peer-driven opinion formation, we introduced a novel indicator - discussion contacts - measuring interactions on relevant topics. Willingness correlated with both uptake and timeliness, yet 6-18% of initially unwilling respondents ultimately received [&ge;]2 doses. Lower willingness was associated with a 2.0-month vaccination delay. Perceived severity and willingness to vaccinate declined throughout the pandemic. Behavioural indicators systematically varied by vaccination status, particularly in the Motivation domain. Daily discussion contacts followed the patterns of in-person contacts, ranging from 1.4-2.9 for adults <60 years to 0.5-1.2 for those [&ge;]60 years. This dataset offers theory-informed and time-sensitive inputs to support the development of more realistic and policy-relevant behavioural-epidemic models.

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