Mating behaviour and connectivity drive sporadic European bat lyssavirus 2 infections in Myotis myotis

Understanding the transmission and persistence of zoonoses in wild reservoirs is crucial for outbreak prevention, demographic assessment, and conservation planning. Host demography, ecology, behaviour and within-host viral kinetics together underpin transmission dynamics but are rarely united within epidemiological models. Here we characterised the transmission dynamics of European bat lyssavirus 2 (EBLV-2) infection dynamics by uniting a long-term study (2010-2018) of the ecology of five greater mouse-eared bat (Myotis myotis) colonies in France (~2700 marked individuals) with diagnostic evidence of virus circulation. Although no lyssavirus was detected in any of the 442 saliva samples tested, seropositivity showed synchronised peaks across colonies (0-100% annually), with the highest seroprevalence in 2015-2017, but remaining low otherwise. Fitting Bayesian compartmental epidemiological models, we found evidence that shifts in EBLV-2 prevalence were primarily driven by the gregarious behaviour of populations during the mating season and age-dependent variation in transmission. The duration of maternal immunity emerged as a key, and still empirically unknown factor, which shaped whether EBLV-2 maintenance was enzootic or required an external force of infection. Lyssavirus outbreaks in M. myotis were associated with few deaths overall and had a negligible impact on population dynamics. These findings underscore the value of integrating ecological and individual-level data with mechanistic modelling to enhance our understanding and management of zoonotic pathogens in wildlife.