Exploring heterogeneity in mosquito exposure and attraction and its implications for malaria transmission

BackgroundMalaria transmission exhibits significant heterogeneity within communities, with small proportions of individuals experiencing disproportionate mosquito exposure. MethodsThis study addresses critical knowledge gaps in characterising and modelling this heterogeneity. Parameterising Bayesian hierarchical models to field data from Burkina Faso, we compared gamma and lognormal distributions for describing heterogeneity in mosquito biting rates. We then implemented this heterogeneity in an individual-based stochastic modelling platform, OpenMalaria, to assess its impact on transmission dynamics. FindingsThe gamma distribution was found to better describe the field data, compared to the lognormal distribution. When heterogeneity is introduced to malaria transmission simulations, both prevalence and incidence levels generally decrease across all age groups. Additionally, heterogeneity shifts disease burden towards younger age cohorts and alters the fundamental relationships between entomological inoculation rate and prevalence/incidence. The integration of appropriate heterogeneity distributions into transmission models substantially improved their ability to reproduce field-observed age-incidence curves. InterpretationOur findings highlight the importance of accounting for heterogeneous exposure when modelling malaria transmission, particularly in low-transmission and elimination settings where heterogeneity may be more pronounced.